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The Kondratieff Cycle is a theory based on a study of nineteenth century price behavior which included wages, interest rates, raw material prices, foreign trade, bank deposits, and other data. He, like R.N. Elliott, Kondratieff was convinced that his studies of economic, social, and cultural life proved that a long term order of economic behavior existed and could be used for the purpose of anticipating future economic developments.

He observed certain characteristics about the growth and contractionary phase of the long wave. Among them, he detailed the number of years that the economy expanded and contracted during each part of the half-century long cycle, which industries suffer the most during the downwave, and how technology plays a role in leading the way out of the contraction into the next upwave.

The fifty to fifty-four year cycle of catastrophe and renewal had been known and observed by the Mayans of Central America and independently by the ancient Israelites. Kondratieff's observations represent the modern expression of this cycle, which postulates that capitalist countries tend to follow the long rhythmic pattern of approximately half a century.

In the idealized long wave model, which is illustrated in the diagram above, the cycle (which averages 54 years in length) begins with the "upwave" during which prices start to rise slowly along with a new economic expansion. By the end of a 25-30 year upwave period, inflation is running very high. Its peak sets the stage for a deep recession that jolts the economy. The recession, which begins about the time commodity prices break from their highs, is longer and deeper than any that took place during the upwave.

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Eventually, though, prices stabilize and the economy recovers, beginning a period of selective expansion that normally lasts nearly a decade. Referred to as the secondary plateau, the expansion persists, giving the impression that "things are like they used to be," but its anemic nature eventually takes its toll as conditions within the economy never reach the dynamic state that occurred during the upwave. The secondary plateau ends with a sudden shock (financial panic/stock market crash) and the economy rolls over into the next contractionary phase, which is characterized by deflation and the start of an economic depression.

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